I'll Take the Champions League for $400, Alex

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In order to mark the week on the calendar in which a computer finally beat a human in the game show Jeopardy!, I’ll begin my daily column with an answer:

A: Manchester United, Arsenal, Spurs and City.

Q: Whose headed to the Champions League Next Season?

This may be somewhat controversial, and I know I’ve previously written that I think of Chelsea in the same way that the teenager in the horror movies thinks that the “dead” guy is really dead (i.e., ignore them at your own peril), but I’ll explain my rationale below.  And there’s no time like the present to make a prediction – with the Champions League hotting up once again, the competition is top of mind .  And with no EPL action this weekend, it’s safe to say that I am anticipating United’s Champions League match in Marseilles slightly more than I am looking forward to today’s FA Cup match against the Red Devils of Crawley Town.  So with that introduction out of the way, here’s my logic at arriving in my picks:

I think it’s safe to say United and Arsenal have got two of the four spots locked up (or is it locked down?  Confusingly, I think they mean virtually the same thing in this instance).  In fact, I also think it’s safe to say that one of those two teams is going to win the League, and the other is going to finish second.  Barring a collapse of major proportions (think Chelsea, November/December timeframe), United and Arsenal are too far ahead of their rivals with only two handfuls of games lef in the seasont.  They have eight and four points, respectively, on their nearest rival PLUS a game in hand.  That’s a fairly large lead at this stage in the season.  (Ed. Note: I think it’s also safe to say that you know which team I think will win, and which will finish second, but as a formality here goes: United will be at the top of the league come May, looking down (again) at Arsenal).

Street Fight

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In which we head back to the San Siro for a recap of this week's Champions League match pitting Spurs angainst Milan

Tuesday, February 15, 2011 / Stadio Guiseppi Meazza (a.k.a., San Siro) / Milan, Italy
Spurs return to the San Siro tonight long on Yiddish chutzpah, but short one Welsh maestro in the form of Gareth Bale. On a stormy evening in Milan, tempest a-brew, Bale's teammates returns to Milan to face not the Internazionale side they blitzed for three second half goals last they played here, but rather Inter's fierce cross town rivals, AC Milan. Uncle Harry starts the Champions League knockout phase with an attacking lineup that includes Van der Vaart, Lennon, and Crouch, while Milan counter with Ibrahimovic and Robinho, and old war horse Gennaro Gattuso, among others.

Spurs show no fear of their opponent, attacking from the start, and Milan center back Alessandro Nesta is guilty of a handball inside the first minute. The referee, however, seems not to have arrived at the match yet as he fails to spot the infraction. Peter Crouch's height causes the Italians problems in the early going, as they appear uneasy dealing with an ultra-tall thin man with limited mobility in a direction other than vertical.

In a worrying early development, Milan are forced to substitute goalkeeper Christian Abbiati due to a concussion on 15 minutes, and there's not time like the present to learn the trade for backup Marco Amelia.  Abbiati's been the busier of the two 'keepers to this point in the match, but it's not immediately clear where the blow to his head came from.

For much of the first half Milan appear to be playing the match underwater, not just in heavy rain, but actually underwater: freakishly slow movement being the most obvious component of their play. By the half hour mark, though, Spurs are no longer dominating and Milan have somewhat played their way back into the match, although it's probably more accurate to say that they've managed to drag Spurs down to their level rather than having picked up their own effort. Spurs have gone away from the wide crosses into Crouch that led to their early flurry of opportunities, and both sides seem in search of inspiration as well as goals. In truth it's a fairly drab opening 45 minutes, fit only to match the evening's weather, and it'll be up to the two coaches to channel their inner Vince Lombardi during the interval.

Questions for Cesc, Pep and Arsene

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So now that we're all done with the most-hyped game of the year, farlieonfootie has a few questions that we're attempting to answer:

Did the Arsenal - Barcelona Champions League game live up to the hype? 
I'd say so. And more. It was a great game, the kind that turns neophytes into fans for life.

Did you call the 2-1 Arsenal victory?
No, I thought it would be a 2-2 draw.  I haven't bought into the "best squad ever" hype for Barcelona yet.  And if you doubt my prediction, look it up here.


What did you base your prediction on?
Gut feeling, as well as the knowledge that Barca has never won on the road under Guardiola in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Does Arsenal spray paint it's pitch, or is it always that unnaturally verdant? 
Maybe the colors on my television were off, but man, that pitch is bright. Glowing may be a more apt description.

What kind of idiot wears a scarf that's half Arsenal and half Barcelona? 
Apparently the kind of idiot that populated the Emirates last evening.


Did Lionel Messi actually miss a shot last night with the goal wide open? 
He sure did, and I didn't know that was possible.  He may need to go back to the shop for a re-boot.

Via Carrier Pigeon

Columnist Ed's Preferred Messenger Service for Timely Delivery of his Blogs
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Correspondent Ed's new, more timely column finally arrived, via carrier pigeon direct from Italy:

SAN SIRO, SOMEHWERE IN ITALY, I THINK

Great to see Spurs beat AC Milan last evening with what is effectively their JV squad, even though the pouring rain really ruined my totally awesome new hairstyle.  Spurs also looked very professional in doing so, meaning they followed their game plan and finished with confidence.  Here’s some thoughts on the match of the evening:

1.        I was surprised to see Kranjcar start on the bench (I bet he was as well).  I expected to see him with Pienaar (hah) playing central, with Palacios and Lennon wide.  But it seems Uncle Harry was playing for a very defensive midfield with Palacios and Sandro.  This makes sense in light of the fact that AC Milan simply doesn’t go wide, but just stays in the center of the field.  It also makes sense because AC Milan isn’t going to dazzle you with creativity in the midfield, but will try to bludgeon it up to Abrahimivic and Robinho.  Why doesn’t AC Milan go wide?  Might I suggest:  (1) No speed wide; (2) Bad Italian coaching.

2.       VDV runs himself ragged at the hour mark of every game he plays in.  That’s all he can really give, a good hour, which is fine.

3.       Lennon’s surge in play has been needed.  All evening he looked as if he was going to do some damage.  What is inexplicable to me is why AC Milan didn’t have their only fast defender, Ignazio Abate, shadow him left to right.  Clearly, Antonini was completely feeble when it came to defending him.

4.       If Bale was opposite of Lennon, I think AC Milan may have been run out of the building.

Paging Jermaine Defoe

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Roving columnist Ed checks in with an analysis of where Spurs are and what they need to do to climb even higher:

SPURS LODGE, CHIGWELL, ENGLAND

Okay, so Van der Vaart, Modric, Bale, King, and Kaboul are all out with injuries.  And Defoe is so cold he gives me a shiver every time I see him play.  And they’ve got to win to keep pace with the big boys or lose their place in the Champions League next year.  So what will they do?  Keep winning, of course.

These are your 2011 Spurs.  It’s not like the old Spurs who crumble or disappear weak-kneed into the sunset.  Harry picks up Pienaar (hah) and puts in Kranjcar again and boom – an assist by Pienaar (hah), another big goal by Kranjcar, and a 2 - 1 victory, this time at Sunderland.

It makes me wonder – is Redknapp really this good?  Is he really pulling off success in the Champions League and competing for a top four place in the EPL with backups?  Or is it that he’s just lucky that players that are forced into the lineup are playing this well?  Probably some of both.

Nine Lives

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farlieonfootie visited The Emirates this past weekend to check out Arsenal's title credentials.  Verdict?  Not overly impressed.

Arsenal and Wolves are greeted by a volley of hailstones to open their match at the Emirates Saturday afternoon. Arsenal begin the match as the stronger of the two sides, but have relatively little to show for their efforts by the ten minute mark.  Wolves' main hope today may be that the hail damages the pitch, pocking it up so that it more closely resembles the cow patch they're used to at the Molineux.

Despite the unfamiliarly immaculate pitch, Wolves do show at least a bit of ambition in the early going. Although the men in gold have only scored ten times on the road all season, it's not immediately obvious by watching the game's opening fifteen minutes. What is obvious, though, is that Wolves' defense is not very good, and Robin Van Persie is in fine form as he sneaks a ball past Hennessy for a quick 1-nil lead. Andre Arshavin misses doubling the lead less than five minutes later when the Wolves' keeper badly misjudges a cross, surprising the Russian with his miss, and providing an open invitation to shoot.

Wolves display their typical tough tackling as the game settles down, but once again appear overly reliant on the set play for scoring opportunities.  When Walcott, Fabregas, and Fabregas again are denied in quick succession near the half hour mark, the alarm bells in the Wolverhampton back line are ringing at full volume, and a second goal has surely got to be on the way. Wolves are being bombarded by the Arsenal assault, and when Van Persie's shot is deflected on the stroke of half time, they're lucky to escape to the locker room down by only one goal.

Flippin' Channels

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• Juve played Inter yesterday. Another game played in a blanket of fog in Italy. Am I missing something or does every third game in Italy consist of a fog shrouded stadium from which the fans can barely see the product on the pitch? Very atmospheric, but maybe not so good for business in the long run. 
• By the way, who's the guy who does the commentary for Fox Soccer Channel's broadcasts of the Serie A? He makes me want to slit my wrists. He's monotone even when he gets excited, and his accent mixes Irish and Italian, creating a bizzare linguistic experience. He's worth listening to, though, if you ever find yourself overly excited -- he's guaranteed to bring you back down to earth.
  
• Real Madrid with ten men -- due to Iker Casillas' early and deserved red card -- are still better than most teams with eleven on the pitch. Real put Espanyol to the sword yesterday after being shorthanded, and could easily have score four or more golazos with slightly better finishing. Never mind, though, the result was still good enough for Mou's men to pick up two points on the Blaugrana, leaving them five points adrift of the leaders after this weekend.

The Magic Man

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It's finally here: time for the Manchester Derby. No more talking or shouting, just the two teams on the field at the Theater of Dreams. Sir Alex opts for a European 4-5-1 at home, preferring Rooney to Berbatov up top, while Roberto Mancini opens with his preferred 9-1-1 lineup on the road, with David Silva and Carlos Tevez to provide the offensive spark.

David Silva flashes wide right at the start on a beautiful give and go for the first real opportunity of the game. He's clear through on goal, played onside by Ryan Giggs, and it's a massive let off for United when the Spaniard misses to start the game.

Nani has United's first real chance at the tem minute mark, cutting in from the right wing to smash a left footed laser over Hart's head. For all those doubting City's ability to attack today -- including this viewer --Ya Ya Toure's header just over the far end of the bar offers a reminder of City's abilities and seeming intent early on as the scoreline remains knotted at zero. Two minutes later United is picked apart again at the back, as Silva passes in Toure, whose shot is deflected off Smalling's chest. United may have packed the midfield this afternoon, but it doesn't seem to be deterring City from controlling the possession and the game a quarter of the way through the action.

United finally gain some sustained possession near the half hour mark, but the opportunity passes by without a real threat being offered by the home side. Fletcher's header/shoulder off Giggs' cross is straight at Hart, but it's United's first real test of the City 'keeper. United show a little bit of shape as the match nears half time, but they still appear reluctant to push too many bodies forward.

Speechless

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For one of the few times in my life, I find myself speechless. Or wordless. Writer's block, I think they call it. So instead of my usual column, you'll have to satisfy yourselves with the usual news roundup. Sorry, but it's difficult to be brilliant every day, especially when you've been grounded to the nub by life's other events. So here goes:

He's Baaaaack:  Uncle Roy makes his return to EPL football this weekend, back in the saddle at West Bromwich Albion. Given the derisory treatment Roy received at the hands of the scouse crowd at the last joint he worked, I wish Hodgson nothing but the best, and hope WBA will avoid the drop they were so clearly heading toward under Roberto DiMatteo.

Mancini Stirs the Pot:  Before yesterday afternoon, there was relatively little in the way of locker room billboard material for either side to get excited about leading up to the Manchester Derby. Enter the Scarved One, and his belief that United were "very lucky"  to do the double over City last season. I don't know about you, but I don't recall anything "lucky" about scoring four goals the first game at Old Trafford, and then scoring a late, late goal to claim a 1-nil win back at Wastelands. That is, unless you're willing to write off all of United's late victories over the Fergie years as being "lucky," in which case, I'll gladly take it. In any event, Roberto, thanks for adding fuel to the United fire.

Blackpool Up(and Down)date and Other Thoughts

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Ed's a busy man, as he's continuing to cover Blackpool while also taking back Spurs' responsibilities.  When will he sleep?

Blackpool lost again, this time 5-3 to Everton on the road. The Tangerines fought back twice and took a 3-2 lead with about twenty minutes to play on a great Charlie Adam run ending in a punctuating headed goal. For most teams, the game would be over at that point, but not for Blackpool. Despite Coach Holloway subbing a defender in to go five across at the back, and putting one man forward, Blackpool couldn’t even slow down the attempts of Everton. A few quick goals later and he was forced to go back on offense, which ultimately led the the fifth and final goal.

One might conclude that Blackpool’s skid is a result of their lack of depth, and in part it is. But sadly it’s also just a result of their lack of talent. It used to confuse me when Holloway attempted to keep the pressure on the other team even after putting up leads. Now it is clear to me that his defenders aren’t so much getting caught up field, but rather just aren’t very good at defending in the first place. It makes sense, then, that the his strategy is that it is imperative to put his team in a position to score early and often.